Project Fact debunks Project Fear
© BBC / © Brexit Facts4EU.Org (see below for large, clickable version of chart)
The reality versus the Remainer Treasury’s fear-mongering fantasies
On Tuesday the Office for National Statistics published its latest jobs figures. Over one million more people are in employment than immediately prior to the EU Referendum.
One month before the EU Referendum in 2016, Her Majesty’s Treasury embarked on a massive propaganda exercise designed to scare the living daylights out of the British people, if they dared to vote Leave.
Below is a Brexit Facts4EU.Org chart, showing HM Treasury’s threats compared to the reality of actual job numbers. As ever we have drawn the actual employment numbers from official government statistics from the ONS, released on Tuesday this week.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
- 1.1 million more employed since the EU Referendum
- The Treasury predicted minus 820,000
- HM Treasury, the Government, the Remain campaign, and the BBC were out by almost 2 million
- Employment Q2 2016 : 31.7 million
- Employment Q2 2019 : 32.8 million
- Increase in employment since EU Referendum : 1.1 million people
- Decrease in employment threatened by Treasury-Remain : 520,000 – 820,000
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org – click to enlarge
Statistical note : The Treasury was not able to give quarterly estimates for the job falls of up to 820,000 which it predicted. In the chart above we have therefore spread these over the two years period which they were forecasting for the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote.
About Project Paralysing Fear – by the Treasury and by the UK Government
On 23 May 2016 the Treasury published its official forecasts of what would happen in the event of a Leave vote. This was their ‘short-term impact assessment’. The long-term impact had already been described by them in a document 5 weeks earlier.
To be very clear, these were their threats of immediate impacts, not what would happen after the UK exited the EU in what was then thought to be 23 June 2018. In other words, these would be the consequences which would start the moment the British people put their cross in the ‘Leave’ box on the ballot paper.
Above : © BBC – The BBC’s then Economics Editor enthusiastically produced a film of the Treasury’s false forecasts.
These deliberate and wholly false forecasts were then used by the Government, the Remain campaign, and by the BBC and other pro-Remain media organisations – to devastating effect.
For many ordinary people, the thought of losing your job is catastrophic
As an example of the grossly inaccurate forecasts, Brexit Facts4EU.Org has chosen one of the most powerful and terrifying of HM Treasury’s many predictions of immediate catastrophe if the British people voted to leave. This was the issue of immediate job losses following a Leave vote.
For ordinary people, the threat of massive job losses resonates far more than many of the more arcane and complicated arguments about EU membership.
Exactly one month before the EU Referendum
Excerpts from the then Chancellor George Osborne’s speech, launching :-
“HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU”
“But what about the immediate impact on our economy? What will it mean next month, next year? And what will it mean for you?”
“Today the Treasury is publishing its detailed and rigorous analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU on growth, jobs, prices, wages, house prices and our nation’s finances.”
“And the conclusion is that all would be hit.”
Talking of businesses and families he went on:
“They won’t take new people on; some will let existing people go. And what about families – how are they likely to respond? Families will also be uncertain about what is coming next.”
“If you don’t know what’s going to happen to your job, your partner’s job, your pay or the fortunes of the firm you work for – it would make sense to delay spending on things. People will put off trying to buy a home, or starting their own business.”
“Put together millions of individual decisions like that and there is real damage to the economy.”
– The Chancellor, 23 May 2016, one month before the EU Referendum
Observations
As far as we know, no-one in HM Treasury has lost their job as a result of the catastrophic ineptitude of the forecasts.
In fact the only person to lose his job was the former Chancellor George Osborne whose Department produced the wild claims. Fortunately for him, he was able to replace his job with six new ones.
This wasn’t a slogan on the side of a bus
It’s important to note that the forecast of massive job losses wasn’t a slogan on the side of a bus, suggesting something which could be done after the UK left.
This was official analysis of what would happen immediately. It was the result of detailed ‘macroeconomic and fiscal modelling’, from the government department that is supposed to know how to do this stuff.
The contrast between the truth, and the deliberate lies of the government, David Cameron, George Osborne, and the civil servants aiding and abetting them could not be more stark.
The government’s partner in crime, the BBC, then produced a video on the subject and you can see a screengrab of this above. Its then economics editor Kamal Ahmad took the bizarre and deliberate propaganda of HM Treasury, made a film, and the whole story was widely reported on the BBC and across all media.
Most ordinary people are not in the position of a George Osborne, able to summon up several new jobs after being made redundant. The threats of Osborne, the Treasury, and the government were very worrying indeed to normal voters and without doubt influenced many to vote Remain.
Does Hammond think we have very short memories?
The now ex-Chancellor Philip Hammond is now at it again, resurrecting Project Fear. This time it’s about leaving the EU on 31 October, “come what may, do or die,” in the words of our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
As a result of Mr Hammond’s obstructive, anti-Brexit tactics over the last three years, it is likely that the UK will have a bumpy ride in the short-term when it leaves on 31 October. If this happens, we invite readers to remember that Mr Hammond was one of the most powerful men in the Government. And he was an integral part of the Government’s failure to deliver a true Brexit in three years.
Perhaps blame should therefore be attached accordingly.
Whilst the BBC reported the latest record-breaking employment figures, they failed to mention the increase in employment of 1.1 million people since the EU Referendum. The Brexit Facts4EU.Org team thought readers might want to know, given that Brexit is the no.1 news item at present.
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[ Sources: HM Treasury Short-Term Impact Paper | Speech by George Osborne, May 2016 | Office for National Statistics – jobs figures | BBC film ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 16 Aug 2019
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