Lord Ashcroft polling puts nationalist rhetoric on the back foot – reversing his previous findings
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2021
Repeated calls for a ‘border poll’ and claims Irish unification is inevitable continue to be shown as wishful thinking. Lord Frost must take encouragement and refute the damaging Protocol
New polling by Lord Ashcroft – who regularly conducts the largest polls on major issues across the whole UK – has shown a majority for Northern Ireland remaining in the United Kingdom by 49% to 41% – rising to a significant margin of 56% to 44% when don’t knows are excluded.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
Northern Ireland – Voting intentions regarding the United Kingdom v. the Republic and the EU
- Stay in the UK : 54%
- Join Republic of Ireland : 46%
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org – click to enlarge
Just as important for those across the UK who value the constitutional issue is that this outcome reverses a similar poll conducted by Ashcroft in September 2019, when support for Northern Ireland leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland was put at 46% to 45% – turning out at 51% to 49% to in favour of unification after removing don’t knows.
The latest Ashcroft poll echoes another survey conducted in October by the University of Liverpool that found were there a Border Poll held today, support for remaining in the UK would be 58.6% in favour with 29.8% against. When ‘don’t knows’ were removed support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK rose to 66.2%.
Lord Ashcroft’s large scale quantitative polling together with the qualitative findings of focus group discussions demonstrates that the demographic theory – that nationalists need only wait for them to be able to win in a future poll – continues to enjoy support.
Resonance with Scotland
Similar factors pertain in Scotland where polling can show those surveyed also believe there will be change in the future – but in both debates voters repeatedly put constitutional change way down the order of priorities of what really matters to them. This is why a belief that change is inevitable rarely actually materialises, as each generation becomes focused on material issues such as healthcare, employment and the relative costs of living in different jurisdictions.
The Ashcroft polling comes at an important juncture in the negotiations over the Northern Ireland Protocol and the growing belief in Westminster that if the EU does not make meaningful concessions Lord Frost will be left with no alternative but to suspend operation of the Protocol under its own Article 16 that allows for such a measure by either signatory – the EU or UK.
For the survey, 3,301 adults in Northern Ireland were interviewed online between 15 and 18 November 2021. To read the full report by Lord Ashcroft polls click here.
Observations
The United Kingdom
Those who believe in the United Kingdom should take heart from the latest findings of Lord Ashcroft’s polling and the recent University of Liverpool survey. The United Kingdom remains the most popular settlement in Northern Ireland – “despite Brexit”.
The Ashcroft polling confirms some things that we knew already – such as the divide between those supporting or opposing Brexit splits broadly down the divide between Unionists (66%/30% in favour) and Nationalists (95%/4% against). No surprise there when the UK is now outside the EU and the Republic of Ireland remains in it.
Work remains to be done by unionist politicians on both sides of the Irish Sea, however, for the polling comes with a warning. 67% of those surveyed said they thought Brexit made it “more likely” Northern Ireland would eventually leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland.
Unionist party leaders and most importantly the UK Government have to make sure the negotiations over the Protocol strengthen Northern Ireland’s place in the UK and not leave it weakened. Despite a majority of Unionists believing there should not be a border poll, seven out of ten think it will happen and 23% believe it will be within ten years.
Strengthening the union
Nevertheless, opportunities for strengthening Northern Ireland’s place in the UK exist and should be seized. Expectations about the outcome of any such border poll should be tempered by the polling finding that when actual costs and benefits of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to join the Republic, the case for remaining British has much in its favour – even though that debate is rarely heard and is seldom championed by mainland politicians.
To quote the polling, “Voters as a whole were more likely to think that housing costs; food, fuel and energy prices; tax rates and unemployment would be higher in a united Ireland than that they would be lower, while public spending, welfare benefits and (by a small margin) pensions were more likely to be lower.” Only Business investment was thought by voters more likely to be higher than lower in a united Ireland.
The polling sends a message, therefore, that not only must the Protocol be resolved so the threat to Northern Ireland’s economic links to the mainland are not undermined – but that Boris Johnson’s economic “levelling up” needs to include Northern Ireland and not just the north of England – and be obvious that it does.
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[ Sources: Lord Ashcroft polls ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 14 Dec 2021
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