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Why repeat the claim of a 4% fall in GDP ‘due to Brexit’ when the opposite is the case?
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024
(And the surprisingly-good new economic growth figures show what Labour has inherited)
Once again, the latest data from the ONS shows how Brexit Britain has defied all the doom-sayers. GDP growth has exceeded the expectations of all the ‘experts’ who backed Project Fear, warning voters that if they voted Leave in the EU referendum we were all headed for an economic cliff edge.
It also makes Rejoiners’ claims that Brexit would cause a 4% reduction in GDP look ridiculous.
The growth figures for the three months to May will put the UK high up in the league table of the G7 countries. We will not know the exact ranking until the full second quarter results are declared by organisations such as the OECD and IMF, but the UK’s performance looks very encouraging so far.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
Latest economic growth figures from the ONS, to May 2024
- Real GDP : +0.9% in Mar-May 2024, compared with Dec-Feb 2024
- Strongest 3-monthly growth since Jan 2022
- Growth in May alone : 0.4% compared to April
- Growth in May alone compared to one year ago (May 2023) : 1.4%
[Source: Latest ONS official data, released Thurs 11 Jul 2022.]
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2024 – click to enlarge
Who came up with the fantasy figure of a 4% reduction in GDP ‘due to Brexit’?
It was the discredited Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which published this erroneous claim. As with every other forecast the OBR makes, they got it completely wrong. Here are just some things readers can tell Remainer-Rejoiners.
- The OBR’s forecasts are never proved to have been right
- This was a 15-year forecast
- The OBR can’t even get its forecasts right for the next six months
- The forecast was based on faulty assumptions
- Our reports deal in the official facts, not forecasts
- The fact is that UK GDP has grown steadily since the EU Referendum (apart from Covid years)
- Since actually leaving the EU, the UK had the highest growth in the G7 for 2 years running
- Real GDP growth continues and is currently accelerating
- Real wage growth continues to rise
The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood commented on this Facts4EU.Org report
“Once again the OBR produce bad forecasts and the Remain establishment use them as facts. Brexit did not cut GDP. It went up. It did not increase unemployment. It went down. It did not reduce our total exports. They rose. The media should stop using the 4% loss figure as it never happened.”
– The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, commenting to Facts4EU.Org and CIBUK.Org, 12 Jul 2024
May’s month-on-month growth was double what analysts expected
The 0.4% GDP growth in May compared to April was double what analysts had predicted. All three main sectors, (services, production and construction) contributed positively to GDP growth in the month.
With regard to the largest sector of the UK economy, services, the ONS stated : “This is the strongest three-monthly growth rate since December 2021.
Observations
For years Facts4EU.Org has been continually insulted on social media by ignorant Remainer-Rejoiners who never actually bother to read our reports. If they did, they would know that these reports are based on official facts, not fiction, and they might learn something.
We don’t have the resources – nor the will – to correct these poor souls each day. It doesn’t matter how many facts you try to thrust at them, they simply do not want to hear them. Nevertheless we are often asked by readers for information with which to rebut Remainer-Rejoiners’ claims – either on social media or when talking to friends and family.
We therefore hope that our report today is useful.
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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics, 11 Jul 2024 ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 13 Jul 2024
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